From the scenario designer: “For the first time in half a century, neither the Liberty nor Heritage Parties have an incumbent President or Vice-President running in the election. The ever present National Unity Party is surging in popularity. Based on an alternative history of North America - the Federation of American States.”

It seems like momentum is in McCain’s favor right now - the stock market had a good week last week, and he’s had several good days including a couple mini-scandals on Obama. However, Obama has built a large polling advantage and has an incredible national GOTV apparatus. This will be too much for McCain to overcome.

Final prediction:

Obama wins with 320+ E.V., +5pp.

The TheorySpark Team

From the scenario designer: “Birmingham, the “Second City of the United Kingdom”, has gone through a further new wave of immigration in the 1980s, ranging from Ireland to non-Commonwealth countries like Somalia. This has caused serious unrest in the city, culminating in the Handsworth race riots in 1981 and 1985. With Neil Kinnock’s re-invigorated Labour, surely the people of Birmingham will reject Thatcher’s hopes for a third term.”

From the scenario designer: “By 1989, Prime Minister Margaret’s Thatcher’s leadership was coming under attack from her own party’s MP’s, over her controversial reforms on taxation, introducing the Community Charge, or more infamously known as the “Poll Tax”. After already contesting a leadership challenge in 1989 but winning with ease, Margaret Thatcher faces a really tough test against 3 of her own cabinet ministers.”

From the scenario designer: “The passing of Queen Elizabeth II came as a shock and great sadness to many. However, it also sparked a debate on the future of the monarchy, a debate that Prince Charles and the monarchists lost. Now, Britain goes to the polls for the first time ever to elect a President.”

It features:

* 44 candidates from 7 different parties with contested primaries in each party.
* Campaign in 25 regions, throughout England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
* Get endorsements from British newspapers, pressure groups and MPs.
* Set your position on 18 issues, from University top-up fees to the NHS, and from your view on Gordon Brown to your position on British membership of the EU.

From the scenario designer: “Magaret Thatcher’s Conservatives are hoping for a third term. Neil Kinnock’s Labour has taken a more centrist stance and will be more of a challenge than their 1983 election disaster. The SDP-Liberal Alliance continues, and hope to overtake Labour as the second party. A Thatcher backlash is beginning to take place in Scotland and northern England, but Kinnock has to prove he is electable in the southern counties and London.”

From the scenario designer: “The Council is a rarity in Scotland: A Lab/Con marginal. This was and still is, a Tory stronghold but with Labour eating at their vote and healthy pockets of Lib Dem support, the Tories are second, one seat behind Labour. Can the Lab/Lib Dem control come to an end, or are the Tory party still licking their wounds from their Government downfall in 1997?”

From the scenario designer: “What if the thrilling presidential election of 1960 were held in 2008? President Eisenhower never sent troops to Iraq. Would Kennedy be able to qualify for the general election and win the Presidency?”

From the scenario designer: “Little Rhody, the home of the American Industrial Revolution, is regarded as a solidly Democratic state. However, for the last eight years the Republicans have held the Governorship of the Ocean State, and it is top of the Democrats target list with a field of candidates vying for position. But will Chafee, the unseated liberal Republican Senator and favourite son upset everyone’s chances?”

From the scenario designer: “With Corzine’s popularity flagging, and the political mood in the country slowly coming to terms with the outcome of the ‘08 Presidential election, things don’t look good in New Jersey. With fresh young Republicans rising to face a tired and old Democratic establishment, who will bring the bloom back to the Garden State?”