Since we did it in 2004, we’ll take another round with the upcoming election.
It seems like momentum is in McCain’s favor right now – the stock market had a good week last week, and he’s had several good days including a couple mini-scandals on Obama. However, Obama has built a large polling advantage and has an incredible national GOTV apparatus. This will be too much for McCain to overcome.
Final prediction:
Obama wins with 320+ E.V., +5pp.
The TheorySpark Team