United Kingdom – 2010, by Tom Hughes, has now been added to the scenarios page for our election game simulation.
From the scenario designer: “For the first time in half a century, neither the Liberty nor Heritage Parties have an incumbent President or Vice-President running in the election. The ever present National Unity Party is surging in popularity. Based on an alternative history of North America – the Federation of American States.”
Since we did it in 2004, we’ll take another round with the upcoming election.
It seems like momentum is in McCain’s favor right now – the stock market had a good week last week, and he’s had several good days including a couple mini-scandals on Obama. However, Obama has built a large polling advantage and has an incredible national GOTV apparatus. This will be too much for McCain to overcome.
Final prediction:
Obama wins with 320+ E.V., +5pp.
The TheorySpark Team