Political Games Forever

I find political and demographic data can be very fun. (Maybe not as fun as real political games, of course.) In a post called Radiohead Republicans, Patrick Ruffini (an online political strategist) talks about a new way to figure out how to microtarget in a campaign. Yep, aggregated Facebook data. And you thought your Facebook page was just an innocent way to network. The data multiplied by millions of other pages just might turn out to be a powerful tool for use in politics - and what is a large part of politics but a branch of marketing? Perhaps that explains part of why Facebook was able to sell a 1.6% stake for $240 million a few days ago.

This is the Republican version of the Democrat post below.

In the US election game 2008 scenario, we are about to release a new version using the actual October 1st data from the real world. It’s interesting to note the changes in the primaries standings between the two versions. Here is a picture of the Republicans’ state of affair from the version released in June:

(click here to see the full-size image)

This is what it looks like now, with the latest October 1st polling data:

(click here to see the full-size image)

What has changed in the 2008 game scenario? The most visual difference is the swath of central-western states that have moved from McCain to Tie. This is a result of two factors: 1. McCain’s national percentages have fallen significantly. In fact, he has moved into 3rd place, behind Fred Thompson. 2. Giuliani, like Clinton, has continued to increase his lead in national percentages. So what makes the Republican contest different from the Democrats? The answer is 3. Romney is now leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, and tied for first in Nevada and Michigan - the first 4 crucial states in the game and real world primaries or caucuses. Combine that with 4. Fred Thompson is leading in many southern states. This makes the Republican primaries much more interesting at this point.

All these political shifts are reflected in the candidates’ estimated delegates totals. Giuliani’s delegates in the game has risen from 996 (a plurality) to 1371 (an absolute majority) - enough to take the nomination outright. McCain has plummeted from 454 to 53. Thompson has increased from 250 to 322. Romney, meanwhile, has gone from 79 to 144.

“President Forever 2008 + Primaries is a political wonk’s dream.”

Generation Gamerz has a nice review of President Forever 2008 + Primaries up. There are a few minor inaccuracies (for example, not all candidates start with $10M - as an aside, in the latest 2008 Beta scenario they start with their actual FEC 3rd Quarter amounts), but how can you not like a review that says:

“Like SimCity and the Tycoon series, this game is like watching the monkeys at the zoo, it’s hard to turn away.”

To be honest, watching politics is sometimes like watching monkeys at the zoo too - but in a different way.

Ron Paul may not be the biggest story on Intrade (on the Republican side) from September until now. That honour may go to Fred Thompson, who currently is second in the Republican national polls. As a side note, Intrade has many elements that are like a game, including ranking and feedback on candidate progress - it’s kind of fun. Fred Thompson’s graph in the Politics > 2008 US Election > 2008 Republican Presidential Nominee contract looks like this:

That is a stark drop. From almost 30 in mid-September to 12. If things keep going this way, he is in danger of being passed by Ron Paul, John McCain, or even Mike Huckabee.

This post has a nice collection of charts as way of comparison to the other Republican presidential candidates.

In the US election game 2008 scenario, we are about to release a new version using the actual October 1st data from the real world. It’s interesting to note the changes in the primaries standings between the two versions. Here is a picture of the Democrats’ state of affair from the version released in June:

(click here to see the full-size image)

This is what it looks like now, with the latest October 1st polling data:

(click here to see the full-size image)

What are the interesting trends? Well, first, every state still has the same leader, with three exceptions. Texas and Wyoming go from Tie to Leaning Clinton, and Virginia goes from Edwards to Tie. Even though Iowa now has Clinton leading in most polls, whereas back in June it was Edwards, it is still close enough that the state is white (tied) in the game.

The second big trend is Clinton’s consolidation of her lead. While she has risen in national polls, both Obama and Edwards have fallen, and this is reflected in the new game scenario. Her estimated delegates in the game has risen from 2572 to 2783. Obama’s delegates take has slumped from 1273 to 724. Edwards has managed to keep about the same number of delegates - 310 to 306.

Next will be the Republicans, which is a little more interesting.

You can now “google” the Australian election.

Go here

http://maps.google.com.au/maps/mm

and then check the ‘Australian 2007 Election’ box on the left-hand side. It’s almost like a game.

(For a real game, you can click here.)

On the topic of Ron Paul … In the horse-race that is the Intrade presidential futures market, Ron Paul has moved into 4th, displacing John McCain. Impressive. (Or rough, if you’re looking at it from McCain’s perspective.)

Ron Paul recently stunned the Republican primaries world by taking in $5 million in quarterly fundraising, putting him close to some of the highest profile candidates. What is interesting is how he did it. Most of it was done through the web, and his web-site utilizes some nice game psychology.

Here is a picture of the fundraising portion of his main page, which is front and centre on his web-site.

You can see the Statue of Liberty on the right-hand side. The total is a real-time (or close, I presume) number, which gives donators (game concepts in italics) immediate feedback on their progress in a nice, visual way. Their progress is towards the goal, in this case October fundraising of $4 million. The goal is broken down into sub-goals on the Statue. Next, the goal is part of a larger goal, $12 million by December 31st. Finally, this is tied into the ultimate goal, as noted in the top-left corner, ‘Raising to Win’. So the ‘player’ (that is, donator) knows what the goal is, how to advance towards the goal (by clicking the ‘Donate today!’ button), and gets immediate feedback on progress. There is a countdown metre (’20 days 21 hrs to go’), which adds tension to the game. To top it off there is glory involved, as the latest round of donators get their names printed on the web-site.

This is basic game psychology stuff, and my guess is it adds a non-insignificant amount to Paul’s web-based fundraising efforts.

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